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Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Steroids in baseball

Steroids in baseball may be a bigger problem than MLB wants to admit. Over the weekend the first positive test at the major league level was reported to be Tampa Bay Devil Rays OF Alex Sanchez. It's not the allstar the public wanted, but Sanchez's story might be the tip of the iceberg. Monday MLB announced 38 minor leaguers from the Cactus League Spring training tests of 12 teams.

The MLB minor league testing includes testing for "reasonable cause" i.e. if a member of the Minor League Healthy Policy Advisory Committee receives information that gives him/her reasonable cause to believe that a player has in the previous year used or possessed a prohibited substance.

Minor league baseball also subjects all players to up to four unannounced tests per year for drugs of abuse and performance enhancing substances. If a player tests positive for either, he may be subject to additional testing.

A first positive test allows for entry into a treatment program, and a unpaid suspension of 15 games. A second and third positive test result in an unpaid suspension of 30 games and 60 games respectively. A fourth positive test warrants a one-year suspension. A fifth offense results in permanent suspension from baseball.

The list of banned substances includes: Steroids, steroid precursors, designer steroids, masking agents and diuretics plus pro-hormone nutritional supplements, ephedrine, human growth hormone and erythropoietin (EPO). The policy also prohibits drugs of abuse, such as amphetamines, cocaine, LSD, marijuana, opiates (i.e. heroin), phencyclidine (PCP), MDMA (ecstasy) and GHB.

The more stringent policies are the main reason for more positive results. Of the 38 minor leaguers that tested positive 10 were released. Another surprising statistic is that there were 37 first time offenders, and 21 Latin American players tested positive. It is a very surprising trend because it is either bad advice the players are receiving to make it to the majors from a distant country, or a gamble some players are taking in the hopes of a big payday at the major league level. Eventhough the US Dollar isn't worth a lot against the British Pound, the Euro, the Yuan, or the Yen, doesn't mean it isn't valuable in places like Venezuela, the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, or Mexico where some of the Latin American players hail from.

Overall the numbers are shocking when you consider the Grapefruit League Spring Training has 18 teams and their tests haven't been made public yet. The Seattle Mariners had eight players test positive, including two players who previously played at the major league level, and they released one player. The Chicago Cubs had seven players test positive, and released two of them. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had five players test positive, one previously played at the major league level, and they released one. The Oakland A's had five players test positive, including one third time offender, and they released one. The Texas Rangers had five players test positive, and they released three of them. The San Diego Padres had four players test positive, and released two of them. The Colorado Rockies had two players test positive, and the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago White Sox each had one player test positive. None of the three teams released anyone.

The MLB major league testing procedure follows these guidelines. One unannounced mandatory test of each player during the season, plus random testing of selected players (with no maximum number) during the season and the off season.

At the major league level MLB tests for: Steroids, steroid precursors, designer steroids, masking agents and diuretics. None of the other drugs and supplements, including ephedrine, are expressly banned in the agreement effective until 2008.

For a first offense players will be suspended without pay for 10 days. A second offense players will be suspended without pay for 30 days. A third offense players will be suspended without pay for 60 days. A fourth offense major league players will be suspended without pay for one year. The fifth offense players are subject to the decision of the Comissioner of Baseball for punishment. Players can also be “threatened” with a monetary fine.

According to the MLB steroid policy Alex Sanchez received a 10 day suspension. It's kind of too bad for him. He was recently reunited with his mother this spring after her defection from Cuba. They hadn't seen eachother in about a decade. He has been with a couple teams this spring. His positive test came on March 7, 2005, while he was a member of the Detroit Tigers. He claims that he has done nothing other than taking over the counter weight gainer milkshakes, muscle relaxers, and over the counter multivitamins. He has also hired a lawyer to dispute his test results as well. Alex Sanchez doesn't fit the mold of power hitter. He had 4 lifetime homeruns in 1351 at bats. Over his 4 year major league career he is only averaging 73 games played a season. Who's to say what the results are, but what if MLB administered a minor league test to a major league player to get a positive result? What if he is just a barometer of what is to come if MLB adapts to the more stringent minor league policy in 2008 and beyond?

NL Predictions

Baseball season is finally upon us. Let's look at the NL East first. Winning the division has recently been a tradition for the Braves, and this year that will change. The Florida Marlins will win the division this year. The Marlins added 1B Carlos Delgado in the off season. With Delgado added to the potent lineup of OF Juan Pierre, 2B Luis Castillo, OF Juan Encarnacion, OF Miguel Cabrera, 3B Mike Lowell, and C Paul LoDuca there isn't an easy out. Their pitching staff will be healthy for the first time in 2 seasons. The pitching staff will feature Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Al Leiter, Dontrelle Willis, and closer Guillermo Mota.

The Sleeper in the NL East is the Atlanta Braves. I know the Braves are the favorite to win the division for a lot of people, but they are depending on oft injured players to produce. OF Raul Mondesi, and OF Brian Jordan used to be big time run producers, but injuries, age, and sometimes attitude have prevented them from being major superstars. P Mike Hampton, and P John Thomson usually miss a few starts and have occasional bad stretches. If all of those issues are addressed P Tim Hudson and P John Smoltz are bound to have great years. Closer Denny Kolb is a decent closer with good placement instead of overpowering stuff.

In the NL Central the St. Louis Cardinals look good. The defending NL Champions have a chance to be healthy for the whole season. OF Larry Walker will be playing a full season with the club, which will prove very beneficial for them. Along with OF's Jim Edmonds, and Reggie Sanders, 3B Scott Rolen, and 1B Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have a great lineup. If their pitchers can stay healthy their rotation is good. P Mark Mulder, P Chris Carpenter, P Matt Morris, P Jason Marquis, and P Jeff Suppan are an improvement over last year's staff.

The Sleeper in the NL Central is the Chicago Cubs. The expectations for them are different this year. P Kerry Wood, and P Mark Prior won't miss as many starts as last year, eventhough Prior does begin the season on the 15 day DL. P Greg Maddux and P Carlos Zambrano proved they're more than able to produce wins. Their closer Joe Borowski starts the season on the 15 day DL. P LaTroy Hawkins will assume the closer duties, but he hasn't been able to close games in the past. The Cubs can look forward to a healthy SS Nomar Garciaparra, 3B Aramis Ramirez, 1B Derrek Lee, 2B Todd Walker, and no Sammy Sosa as well. OF Jeromy Burnitz assumes his old place in left field this season.

In the NL West the winner will be the San Francisco Giants. Even without Bonds the Giants look like the best team in the division. They were busy in the offseason upgrading their defense. They acquired SS Omar Vizquel, OF Moises Alou, and C Mike Matheny. OF Pedro Feliz has the chance to get substantial playing time until Bonds comes back from knee surgery. Their pitching staff will appreciate the upgrades on defense. The Giants have fallen victim to bad defense that has cost them important games over the last few years. The Giants have a good pitching staff featuring Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Jerome Williams. They also acquired closer Armando Benitez.

The Sleeper in the NL West is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are the only other team that dropped a lot of cash this summer in guaranteed contracts, despite reports of their imminent financial problems. The only real problem they have is at closer. They now start an offense that features 3B Troy Glaus, OF Shawn Green, OF Jose Cruz, OF Luis Gonzalez, SS Royce Clayton, and 2B Craig Counsell. Their pitching staff changed the most, now featuring Javier Vazquez, Russ Ortiz, Brandon Webb, and Shawn Estes. They have the potential to surprise many in the NL this season.

All in all the NL looks to be very competitive this year. The NL Wildcard will be a three team race between the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and the Atlanta Braves. The NL will be a lot closer at the top this year. The competition for the wild card will be fierce. The wildcard playoff slot has been the World Series winner the last 3 seasons.

AL Predictions

Baseball season is finally upon us. It has survived the scrutiny of the US Congress, the American public, and itself to bring in a new season. Let's look at the AL East first. Winning the division has recently been a tradition for the Yankees, and this year won't change that. George Steinbrenner went out and spent a lot of money this offseason and he will see it pay off. The Yankees signed free agent pitchers Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano, and they also traded for pitcher Randy Johnson. The Yankees set another precedent, for the first time since 1903 a team added three 15 game winning pitchers in one offseason.

The Yankees have the potential to hit .300 as a team this season. 2B Tony Womack, SS Derek Jeter, OF Bernie Williams and 3B Alex Rodriguez just set the table for OF Hideki Matsui, OF Gary Sheffield, 1B Tino Martinez, DH Jason Giambi and C Jorge Posada to drive them in. Watching opening day against the Red Sox made the Yankees look like they were in good shape for the season. If Randy Johnson can stay healthy, he'll enjoy more run support than he got last year, and he looks like the 2005 AL Cy Young winner in the making. Last year they had a problem with an inconsistent pitching staff, which the Boss went out and fixed.

The Sleeper in the AL East is the Baltimore Orioles. In the last two offseasons they have added C Javy Lopez, SS Miguel Tejada, and OF Sammy Sosa. Along with 1B/DH Rafael Palmiero, and 3B Melvin Mora they have a potent line up. Their only problem is their inconsistent, young starting pitching staff. If they can get some good quality starts from their staff, their bullpen can close out games.

In the AL Central how can you go wrong with the Minnesota Twins? They have won the division for the last three years. They have experience and Johan Santana, the 2004 AL CY Young winner. Closer Joe Nathan looked almost unhittable until late last season. If P Brad Radke, P Kyle Lohse, P Joe Mays, or P Carlos Silva have a decent season the Twins will be hard to catch. The Twins also have a deep line up featuring phenoms 1B Justin Morneau, and C Joe Mauer. OF Shannon Stewart, OF Jacque Jones, and OF Torii Hunter are great in the field and always carry potent bats as well.

The Sleeper in the AL Central is the Cleveland Indians. They were in the race last year until a late August swoon that saw them go from eight games over .500 and in the race to four games under .500 in 20 days. If they can avoid crumbling late in the season, they might give the Twins a run for the division.

In the AL West the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim look really good. With reigning 2004 AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield you are going to win some games. Joining him in the outfield is a great hitter in Garrett Anderson, and gold glover Steve Finley. The Angels have a good pitching staff if they stay healthy. In the infield 1B Darin Erstad, 2B Chone Figgins, and SS Orlando Cabrera. Skipper Mike Scioscia has guided the Angels to the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 years.

The Sleeper in the AL West is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have the best compilation of young talent of any team in baseball. Looking around the infield they could all be allstars. 2B Alfonso Soriano, SS Michael Young, 3B Hank Blalock, C Rod Barajas, 1B Mark Teixeira along with OF Richard Hidalgo are things that keep pitchers up at night. All hit for average and power.

All in all the AL looks to be very competitive this year. The AL Wildcard will be a three team race between the Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and the Boston Red Sox. The wildcard race is always exciting and the Red Sox have won it the past few years. The Red Sox will get past the opening day letdown and compete for the wildcard, which has been the slot of the World Series winner the last 3 seasons.